Anticipate user behavior to implement refined operations.
Any of this sound familiar?
Users are difficult, costly to acquire, and even harder to retain.
There are a lot of active users, but none are paying users.
It is really hard to optimize operations to give users a pleasant journey using my product.
Fortunately, there's HUAWEI Prediction, which can lend you a hand.
What Is Prediction?
The Prediction service precisely forecasts the behavior of target audiences by utilizing machine learning technologies that harness the data-driven user behavior and attributes analysis in HUAWEI Analytics. It can also help you carry out and optimize operations, boosting user retention and conversion dramatically.
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1. Identifying User Churn Risks and Improving User Retention
When your app is at risk of user churn related to user experience or the competition, you can predict users who are likely to churn in the next week based on user behavior data prepared in advance, prepare promotional activities designed to win-back such users, and activate other users to enjoy vastly more effective user retention.
1. Identifying User Churn Risks and Improving User Retention
When your app is at risk of user churn related to user experience or the competition, you can predict users who are likely to churn in the next week based on user behavior data prepared in advance, prepare promotional activities designed to win-back such users, and activate other users to enjoy vastly more effective user retention.
2. Predicting Potential Paying Users and Increasing Conversion
The Prediction service precisely segments users who may purchase products over the next week, and automatically creates clearly-defined audiences. Operations personnel can formulate targeted marketing policies or optimize the payment process for the audiences. For example, they can offer personalized operations such as ad-free purchases and time-limited discounts to such users to boost revenue to new heights.
3. Predicting Potential Return Users and Reducing Customer Acquisition Costs
Prediction can also help you predict the audience with a high return potential over the next seven days, and formulate precise marketing policies for these users, such as pushing greetings to existing customers and configuring discount packages for members, to improve payment conversion and cultivate user loyalty.
Advantages
1. Accurate prediction models: Utilize cutting-edge machine learning technologies to train models that automatically link time series with user characteristics, for enhanced prediction accuracy.
2. In-depth insights into target audiences: Understand audiences' preferences by analyzing user attributes, behavior, and other metrics, to pursue optimal, data-driven strategies at all times.
3. Open audience operations: Open up audience predictions to such services as Push Kit, A/B Testing, and Remote Configuration, to help your business grow.
4. Rapid task creation: Create predictions for a diverse range of conversion events, and optimize prediction models to generate more accurate results.
Case Study
[Background]
A game app has a high user churn rate. Its development team hopes to identify potential churn users in advance, and then retain them in time.
[Solution]
HUAWEI Prediction helps identify users with high churn potential and determine the attributes they hold in common. By working with other AppGallery Connect services, notably Remote Configuration, Prediction saves these users as an audience, and conducts targeted operations.
More information abour Prediction
Related
HUAWEI Analytics Kit, our one-stop analytics platform, provides developers with intelligent, convenient, and powerful analytics capabilities, so you can optimize your apps' performance and identify effective marketing channels. With the newest version, Analytics Kit 5.0.5, we've added new functions like e-commerce analysis, gaming industry analysis, marketing attribution analysis, and install referrer analysis, to meet the data analysis requirements of developers across a huge range of industries. Let's take a closer look at these updates.
1.1 Streamline your data with e-commerce industry analysis
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We’ve added two new sections to reports, giving you useful data such as core sales indicators and sales conversion rates:
Product sales analysis: Shows the GMV, order quantity, number of users who made purchases, details page views, payment conversion rate, and refund data. You can also filter sales data by time segment, app, user attribute, and audience.
Product category analysis: Shows the total purchases, number of users who made purchases, and sales for each product category. You can also add additional filters.
1.2 Understand players' behavior with gaming industry analysis
Gaming industry analysis provides you with data such as core revenue indicators and user analysis, so you can measure your game's overall performance and identify opportunities for growth.
Game top-up analysis: Shows changes in indicators such as average revenue per paying user, average revenue per active user, top-up payment rate, top-up user level, and top-up user retention rate.
Virtual currency analysis: Shows the number of new users consuming virtual currency and the consumption of virtual currency. You can also drill down by app, user attribute, and audience.
Levels and items: Shows data about leveling up and usage of items by user level.
User analysis: Shows the number of users and total consumption by consumption range, as well as play time and payments for new users and active users.
1.3 See which marketing channels work with marketing attribution analysis
The marketing attribution report measures the degree to which a push message contributes to a target conversion event, and helps you optimize your push messages.
1.4 See where your users come from with install referrer analysis
By configuring matching and parsing rules for an install referrer, you can obtain its attribution report, which tells you where your newly subscribed users have come from. You can then tailor your approach for users from different sources.
We're always finding ways to provide you with intelligent, convenient, and secure data analytics services, and are now exploring specific scenarios based on Huawei's "1+8+N" ecosystem, to help you develop apps according to what users want.
Want to find out more about Analytics Kit? Detailed guides are available on the HUAWEI Developers website.
HUAWEI Analytics Kit, our one-stop analytics platform, provides developers with intelligent, convenient, and powerful analytics capabilities, so you can optimize your apps' performance and identify effective marketing channels. With the newest version, Analytics Kit 5.0.5, we've added new functions like e-commerce analysis, gaming industry analysis, marketing attribution analysis, and install referrer analysis, to meet the data analysis requirements of developers across a huge range of industries. Let's take a closer look at these updates.
Streamline your data with e-commerce industry analysis
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We’ve added two new sections to reports, giving you useful data such as core sales indicators and sales conversion rates:
Product sales analysis: Shows the GMV, order quantity, number of users who made purchases, details page views, payment conversion rate, and refund data. You can also filter sales data by time segment, app, user attribute, and audience.
Product category analysis: Shows the total purchases, number of users who made purchases, and sales for each product category. You can also add additional filters.
Understand players' behavior with gaming industry analysis
Gaming industry analysis provides you with data such as core revenue indicators and user analysis, so you can measure your game's overall performance and identify opportunities for growth.
Game top-up analysis: Shows changes in indicators such as average revenue per paying user, average revenue per active user, top-up payment rate, top-up user level, and top-up user retention rate.
Virtual currency analysis: Shows the number of new users consuming virtual currency and the consumption of virtual currency. You can also drill down by app, user attribute, and audience.
Levels and items: Shows data about leveling up and usage of items by user level.
User analysis: Shows the number of users and total consumption by consumption range, as well as play time and payments for new users and active users.
See which marketing channels work with marketing attribution analysis
The marketing attribution report measures the degree to which a push message contributes to a target conversion event, and helps you optimize your push messages.
See where your users come from with install referrer analysis
By configuring matching and parsing rules for an install referrer, you can obtain its attribution report, which tells you where your newly subscribed users have come from. You can then tailor your approach for users from different sources.
We're always finding ways to provide you with intelligent, convenient, and secure data analytics services, and are now exploring specific scenarios based on Huawei's "1+8+N" ecosystem, to help you develop apps according to what users want.
Want to find out more about Analytics Kit? Detailed guides are available on the HUAWEI Developers website. If you have any questions during the integration process, you can submit a service ticket online to consult our technical personnel.
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Why is the user churn rate so high?
How can I prevent user churn?
How can I maximize the value of retained users? All are common challenges faced by app operations teams.
This means that increasing the user retention rate by just 5%, can lead to a staggering 95% increase in revenue. Therefore, operations work is largely dedicated to retaining users and maximizing their value.
How to detect user churn risks in a timely manner and formulate a targeted user operations strategy? As user acquisition costs have increased, many enterprises have adjusted their operations strategy from extensive traffic diversion to refined operations. However, this new paradigm has led to new challenges related to user retention, and "bottleneck" effects that can hinder payment conversion rates. That's where HUAWEI Prediction comes into the picture.
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What Is HUAWEI Prediction?
HUAWEI Prediction anticipates the precise target audiences, by utilizing machine leaning technologies that harness the data-driven user behavior and attributes analysis in HUAWEI Analytics. The service can accurately predict churned users, paying users, and return users, providing invaluable insight on your app's user base.
1. Predicting Churned Users
For many companies, user operations are simply a repetitive cycle, which consists of: defining users who have not signed in or made any purchases over a specific period of time as churned users, strategizing to win them back, and pushing messages or sending SMS messages to reach them. These actions can be reckless, as the causes of user churn are not yet clear, and simply delivering coupons or specific messages is insufficient, and can even backfire. Users have grown accustomed to ignoring messages that they receive from apps.
Effective strategies for retaining users
Rather than dedicating painstaking effort to win back churned users, it would be far better to predict user churn in advance, so that you could take proactive measures to retain users who are at risk of being lost. For example, if a user has been active over the past week but is predicted to be inactive or to uninstall the app, they will be defined as having high churn risk. Then it's a matter of identifying common attributes for such likely-to-churn users (device model, location, etc), as well as identifying metrics (recent app usage, total page views, etc.). HUAWEI Prediction mines the vast array of available data for you,and applies its in-depth insights into likely-to-churn user behavioral characteristics, so that you can adjust your operations strategy in a proactive manner, to reach them more effectively.
2. Predicting Paying Users
2. Predicting Paying Users
Product monetization capabilities are important in determining whether a product will be successful in the long run. In recent years, apps have tried a wide range of promotional activities, such as free service trials, membership benefits, coupons, joint membership models, and even online & offline promotions. The ultimate goal of all of these costly operations is to get users to pay for services.
Methods for boosting the payment conversion rate
First, it's important to target the audience that will make payments in the future. For example, you can use user payment data from the previous two weeks to build a model, and use the model to predict the probability that active users from the past week will pay fees in the following week. This enables you to conduct refined operations that target these specific users, such as optimizing the product purchasing experience and sending discount coupons.
HUAWEI Prediction is designed to do just this. It obtains insight into user behavior to predict audiences that demonstrate a high payment probability, and identifies the detailed attributes of the audience, such as the geographic and device model distributions. You can then use this high-level analysis to allocate resources in an optimal manner, thereby ensuring that the payment conversion rate is maximized.
3. Predicting Return Users
Due to high costs of acquiring new users, extracting full value from all existing users throughout the entire lifecycle, and winning back former users are all key to turning a profit. A satisfied user will repeatedly use your service, and conduct new transactions on a regular basis. A higher return rate indicates greater user loyalty, and loyal users can help bring in new users.
How to attract users to return for purchases?
Just like with predicting paying users, predicting return users can help you boost payment conversions from paying users on a continual basis, with targeted operations actions. Users who have been more recently active are naturally more likely to make payments. You can thus set a condition for users with a high return possibility, as historical paying users who have been active over the most recent week.
HUAWEI Prediction can help you make accurate predictions, which enables you to formulate precise marketing strategies to target specific users, and then see these strategies through, whether this involves pushing greetings to existing users, or configuring discount packages for members. Relying on such data-driven operations can lead to outsized benefits, in terms of both payment conversion and user loyalty.
How can I enable HUAWEI Prediction?
To enable the Prediction service, simply click Enable now on the service page.
HUAWEI Prediction is dependent on the user behavioral data and attributes reported by HUAWEI Analytics Kit. Therefore, before enabling the Prediction service, you'll need to enable HUAWEI Analytics and integrate the Analytics SDK, to ensure that enough events are reported to support the execution of prediction tasks.
For details about the integration procedure, please refer to the following documents:
Android:
https://developer.huawei.com/consum...tegrating-sdk-0000001050161876?ha_source=hms1
iOS:
https://developer.huawei.com/consum...tegrating-sdk-0000001050168479?ha_source=hms1
Web:
https://developer.huawei.com/consum...tegrating-sdk-0000001051065743?ha_source=hms1
HUAWEI Prediction helps anticipate potential user behavior in advance, providing in-depth insight into target users, and facilitating the efficient allocation of resources, to create maximum value.
For more details about HUAWEI Prediction, and how to get started, please refer to our online materials.
An app's ability to retain users has a major impact on its profitability. Retaining users has always been a major challenge for developers, given the presence of competitor apps, and the willingness of today's users to shop around to find the best possible experience.
Therefore, developers have needed to invest more in marketing in order to acquire users. Furthermore, paid traffic has proved even harder to retain, as such users do not tend to install apps solely based on their original needs. Fortunately, there are effective ways to prevent user loss and maximize the value of paid traffic.
This article will highlight a few case studies which illustrate how the Prediction service can help you predict user loss and retain users.
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The figure above shows how a game app was able to improve its user retention, by following just a few steps in the Prediction service. The app's original retention rate was low, and thus its developers enabled the Churn prediction model in Prediction to identify users who demonstrated a high churn probability. They then utilized Prediction to gain actionable insights into the characteristics and behavior of these users, saved them as an audience, and then pushed tailored messages to engage with them on a more targeted basis. This process can be broken into several different stages, and we'll address the key stages for the Prediction service.
1. Precise user targeting
If a user is about to churn, they will likely become less active. The user's activity can be measured based on behavioral data, such as the daily launch rate, launch frequency, and use duration.
Let's take ARPG games as an example. Typical active players of such games tend not to launch the game many times a day, but will stay in the game for relatively lengthy periods of time after each launch. For games in this genre, we regard players who launch the game 2-3 times and play about 5 rounds a day as active players. If an active player has not launched the game very often over the course of a week, or even failed to sign in for two consecutive days, the Prediction service, based on the churn prediction model trained via machine learning, will determine that the player has a high churn probability in the next week.
The Prediction service uses the active user data over the most recent two weeks to train the churn prediction model, which is used to predict the probability that active users of the app in the past week will be lost during the next week. It's important to note that users who are inactive the next week, or uninstall the app are considered churned users.
The Prediction service does not require any high-level algorithm expertise to implement user targeting. Instead, prediction tasks are automatically executed in the background on a daily basis.
2. In-depth insights into audiences
For a targeted audience, the attributes and behavioral characteristics are analyzed, in order to implement a more actionable operations plan for better user retention.
*The data provided is for your reference only.
*The data provided is for your reference only.
This figure is an example of the background data in the Prediction service. It shows that users with high churn probabilities still have game sessions from the past seven days, though these are infrequent. In addition, Prediction enables you to query such users by device model, making it easier to reach them via periodic message pushing, in HUAWEI Push Kit, which users their most recent usage times.
3. Reaching users more effectively
For a targeted audience whose characteristics have been learned, you'll need to implement the right measures to retain its users. HUAWEI Push Kit, mentioned above, is the most handy method for doing so.
An audience generated by the Prediction service can be directly applied by HUAWEI Push Kit to target users. In the case of retention, push messages are sent specifically to users who demonstrate high churn probabilities. Common examples of this include the pushing of time-limited game gift packages, new game characters skills, and even simple greetings.
Prediction tasks incorporate data that is updated on a daily basis. As a result, push messages can be sent periodically to continuously engage recent users with high churn probabilities.
Acquiring traffic is more challenging than ever, but thanks to intelligent data technologies, you can now conduct refined operations that help you extract the most value from existing users. The Prediction service and Push Kit are indispensable for helping enterprises effectively improve ARPU, while also promoting digitization and intelligence across the board.
To learn more about Prediction, please visit our official website.
For more details, you can go to:
l Our official website
l Our Development Documentation page, to find the documents you need
l Reddit to join our developer discussion
l GitHub to download demos and sample codes
l Stack Overflow to solve any integration problems
Original Source
AARRR — short for acquisition, activation, retention, referral, and revenue — is a key operations model, where acquisition, as the very start, greatly affects how users will be converted. You may have tried different methods to improve the acquisition effect, user engagement, and user retention, but to no avail. So, what else can you do?
With the payment analysis report in Analytics Kit 6.0.0, you can analyze the behavior of your users by referring to data such as their payment frequency and preference. By combining this function with other analytical models in the kit, you'll have an array of data to work and plan from for higher revenue.
Enticing Users to Pay QuicklyThe first payment made by a user is the most significant as it implies they are satisfied with the app — but it is a process that can take some time.
This process inevitably varies app by app, so we can only touch on how to guide quick user payments in general.
Identifying common events that lead to the first payment
Sign in to AppGallery Connect. Find your project and app, and go to HUAWEI Analytics > Audience analysis. Create an audience of users who made the first payment. Then, check the report for this audience to identify the functions they frequently use. Let's say for an education app, most users tend to search for or share a course before making their first payment.
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* For reference only
Go to Payment analysis. Under Add filter, select the audience just created. Then, the report will present data about this audience, allowing us to optimize our operations strategies.
Leading non-paying users to frequently used or core functions
As mentioned above, the course searching and sharing functions most likely lead users to make their first payments. We can therefore guide users to use these functions more often. Or, we can send non-paying users push notifications that introduce the functions in detail, to guide such users to use them.
Increasing the ARPU & Payment RateIncreasing the average revenue per user (ARPU) and payment rate is important for boosting total user payment. To this end, we need to implement different operations strategies for different audiences, which can be created using the RFM model. The reason is simple: user payments vary by their payment abilities and preferences.
Determining users' paying habits
Go to Payment analysis. The report here shows changes in the paying users and the amount they pay. Using the filter and comparison analysis functions, we can easily locate the paying habits of different audiences.
* For reference only
If we find that most high-paying users are active users in Beijing, we can specifically target them with campaigns to make recurring payments.
Making audience-specific strategies
We can first segment users into different audiences by using the RFM model.
R: Recency, indicating the last consumption users made before the data collection date. It can be used to measure the user consumption period.
F: Frequency, indicating the consumption times of users in a given period
M: Money, indicating the consumption amount of users in a given period
* For reference only
After creating audiences, we can send them coupons or different push notifications with content that interests them, such as membership-related campaigns and promotions including price-break discounts.
In short, targeted operations based on analysis of how different audiences make payments in the app can help improve payment-related indicators and ROI.
To learn more, click here to get the free trial for the demo, or visit our official website to access the development documents for Android, iOS, Web, and Quick App.
Thanks for sharing.